Even in the best of times, we are surrounded by what I call “constants” — those things we believe to be absolute truths, take for granted, and think will never change. As a result, we don’t deem them worthy of interrogation and eventually find ourselves caught off guard when, say, we no longer commute (or travel anywhere, for that matter) and cooking or take-out are the only options for dining. The rapidly changing landscape of our everyday lives amidst the pandemic proves that even the constants that seem most immovable are vulnerable to disruption. We’re seeing this at an accelerated pace right now, but it’s been happening forever.
Earlier this year, I highlighted the vulnerability of two specific false constants we’ve long taken for granted: Air travel and milk.
While airlines contemplate their future with respect to the types of aircrafts they operate or in-flight amenities, none thought, “What if people just stop flying?” Yet, last year — far before anyone heard the term COVID-19 — Sweden experienced a four percent drop in air travel, largely as a result of flygskam or “flight-shaming” from climate activists. And while not everyone can follow Greta Thunberg’s example and opt for a zero-emissions yacht for crossing the Atlantic, technology is making air travel more optional than ever before.
A rise in autonomous cars will make traveling via car more efficient and comfortable, eliminating the need for many short- to mid-range flights (a particularly welcome alternative when crowding into airports and planes feels irresponsible and even life-threatening). And since business travel accounts for significant revenue for airlines, advances in teleconferencing and the rise of virtual work sessions were cutting into their bookings long before the world started operating almost entirely via Zoom. Now factor in a pandemic and international shelter-in-place orders. Suddenly everything is in flux and travel — how, when, and why we do it — is being redefined. It’s not hard to imagine that four percent drop poised to stay and likely rise significantly in the coming months and years.
Or take milk. It’s such a staple in our society, it’s one of the first things cleared out of the grocery store as soon as there are reports of bad weather, nevermind a global health scare. Which is why it might have come as a surprise when, in early 2020, two of the largest milk producers in the US went bankrupt. Why? Almonds. If I told you twenty years ago that almonds would put Borden out of business, you’d have laughed me out of the building. And yet, they did.
The rise of almond milk and the decline of air travel are two examples of irrational ideas that sound completely crazy — until they aren’t.
BRACING FOR THE INEVITABLE
If this unprecedented time is teaching us anything, it’s that change will happen. The best you can do is look at all the influencing factors within your market and industry — not in an attempt to stop it, but to get out ahead of it.
We all have blind spots to false constants, which expose us to risk. Technological advances, shifts in culture, and new threats to global health guarantee that every company and every industry are over-relying on a constant that is likely to change in the coming years, perhaps far faster than anyone wants to acknowledge.
But eventual bankruptcy or diminishing profits aren’t the only possible outcomes. By preemptively identifying false constants, you can sharpen your predictive vision and develop solutions that evolve with these inevitable changes. Ask yourself: What are you taking for granted? Once you understand the vulnerabilities, you can develop an irrational vision that predicts what would happen if these constants go away, followed by a strategy of small, one-degree decisions to stay ahead of these transformations (steps I’ll cover in future emails).
These are just two recent examples of things we never thought would change, as recently as a few years ago. Think of all the constants in your life and business that have shifted rapidly in just the last month. It’s still too early to say which changes will hold and which will revert back to “normal,” but it’s not too early to start contemplating what life might look like as a result.
We live in a world where outcomes are not always rational — they’re irrational — and the only way to avoid their fate is to identify your constants and arm yourself with some preemptive irrational thinking.
Disrupting false constants is one of the core concepts in my book, Embracing Irrationality. If you haven’t already, I invite you to pay what you like to download it for charity (and don’t forget to write a review on Amazon!)
Previously posted on t-3.com/thinking.