Normally I would do an end-of-year recap at, well, the end of the year, but since 2020 is The Year That Never Ends, I figured I would start my reflections now. We’ve seen lightning-speed changes in a matter of months, so I want to circle back on a few of my predictions and observations so far this year and see how they’re checking out:
FOOD DELIVERY:
Back in 2019, I predicted The Inevitable Consolidation of Food Delivery Services. Then, what do you know? The consolidation began: First, Grubhub shunned Uber and instead merged with Just Eat Takeaway.com, then Uber acquired Postmates.
It literally took a pandemic to save this industry, and it even encouraged DoorDash to launch eight convenience stores that deliver household items, proving that unpredictable market shifts like a pandemic can make or break companies and industries. Making it all the more important to have a…
ZERO REVENUE PLAN:
In What’s Your Zero Revenue Plan?, I posed the question that sounded crazy before March of this year: What would make your business drop to zero revenue tomorrow? This is the uncomfortable reality for too many companies and industries right now, but it IS avoidable. I urge every organization to develop a Zero Revenue Plan by reframing their core value proposition to become more resilient and avoid the fate of companies like J.Crew and Gold’s Gym.
EDUCATION:
Remember Operation Varsity Blues? Feels like another century ago, I know. Needless to say, we now face even greater threats to higher ed than admission bribes, prompting me to write Higher Education: 3 Ways to Save the Industry, in which I offer solutions for making higher ed more equitable and more valuable.
Many of the changes put into action this year are paving the way for the reforms and outcomes I called for:
Since high school seniors couldn’t take their SAT and ACT as usual, standardized tests are now obsolete at the University of California system, Cornell University, and other selective liberal arts schools like Amherst College — a policy that is likely to linger after the pandemic fades.
The thinning has begun, and even professors are placing bets on which higher ed institutions will fold as a result of the pandemic.
Reckoning with the immense financial reliance many universities place on athletics (many of which are on hold during the pandemic), some propose that colleges should offer a sports major, while others are finally acknowledging that the four-year-college-imperative is more about the “college experience” than education.
With Google now offering certification for careers like UX designer for $49 a month and college more financially out of reach than ever, some are questioning whether public tuition will be paid for by the government, or if college will become more of a luxury than a necessity.
REAL ESTATE:
2020 will go down as many things, but one of its biggest and most lasting legacies will likely center on the seismic shift of where we work, and therefore, where we live. In You Live Where? Rethinking Residential Real Estate, I argued that the current residential real estate model is largely antiquated and ripe for disruption, offering multiple suggestions and predictions of how it could evolve, including fractionalized ownership, mobile pods, and home-sharing.
With large organizations (finally) announcing they will trust and empower their employees by focusing on “outcomes not hours,” millions of employees are released from the shackles of their daily commute, unleashing limitless residential daydreams: City-dwellers are leaving their urban homes in droves for “zoom towns” and more rural environs like Montana.
FITNESS:
In Why the Fitness Industry is About to Get Insanely Irrational, I argued that the vertical integration of fitness is the model that will rock the industry and transform our bodies and health.
Thanks to the shuttering of gyms and fitness studios, Peloton stock is roaring and Lululemon bought at-home fitness startup Mirror. Both are definitely contenders to own this space. But, ultimately, I predict Amazon will dominate, starting with the launch of their Halo health band and building to my other prediction: Amazon will acquire Tempo, the home fitness device that streams elite trainers who monitor your movement, track your form, and make customized recommendations using its 3D sensors. All signs are pointing to the inevitability of this — so get ready.
TECHNOLOGY:
Earlier this year, most of us had never used Zoom, now this technology dominates work meetings and classrooms alike. In Look Out, Zoom: The Technology That Will Change Everything, I looked beyond the current Zoom-craze, predicting that a new company will launch in the next 12 to 18 months that solves this problem by focusing on creating an experience that’s better than in-person human interaction.
New apps like mmhmm are working toward this goal, offering a more vibrant, naturally collaborative alternative to Zoom. And while they continue to innovate, I look for many, many more competitors to enter this space, leaving current leaders like Zoom in their virtual rearview mirror.
BANKING:
I argued that Satya Nadella should be the new CEO of Chase. Why? Because a tech CEO is uniquely qualified to lead the bank of the future, particularly right now.
And now that Chase has announced it will launch a digital-only bank in the UK, this call to action is more relevant than ever. Shifting to digital is not enough — financial institutions must also align their leadership to make it work and stay competitive. We also saw the first fintech startup take over a national bank, firing a warning shot from Silicon Valley to Big Banks everywhere: innovate or die. (Watch this space for more on this in the weeks to come.)
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Yes, it’s only October and that’s how much has unfolded in these industries. Phew. Our heads are spinning and the path forward may feel upside down and inside out, but if you embrace the pool of irrationality in which we’re now swimming, the future may be awash with possibility, not pessimism.
Until next time,
Ben